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Gedetailleerde leidraad

PBL Guidance for Uncertainty Assessment and Communication
0 Introduction to the Detailed Guidance
1 Problem Framing and Context
2 Process Assessment
3 Environmental Assessment Methods
4 Uncertainty Identification and Prioritization
5 Uncertainty Analysis
6 Review and Evaluation
6.1 Revisit the Problem and Assessment Steps
6.2 Robustness of Results
7 Reporting
References
Acknowledgments
A Appendix: Uncertainty Matrix
B Appendix: Glossary

6.2 Robustness of Results

Before proceeding to the reporting of results, some checks on the robustness of the environmental assessment may be in order. The following questions are designed to aid that process.

1. Describe the main results of the environmental assessment.

2. What is new from the last time an assessment on this problem took place?

3. If some results have changed, what explains the difference?

4. Given your assessment of the most critical assumptions underlying the results, your assessment process has encompassed and tested:

 few of the major assumptions

 some of the major assumptions

 most of the major assumptions

5. Can you imagine a scenario by which it turned out that the main results were substantially incorrect or not valid?

 not imaginable

 conceivable

 quite possible. If so, describe such a scenario:

6. Would results come out differently if the burden of proof was reversed?

 no

 yes

7. How certain are you about the main results? How would you rate your confidence in them?

 low

 medium

 high

8. Who might/would disagree with the main results and why?

9. Could any disagreement be reconciled by (check all that apply):

strategy low
priority		 medium
priority		 high
priority
Further research
New information
Better measurements
Better models
Scientific consensus building
Converge on value / societal consensus building
Other, specify:

10. From the perspective of the policy process, do the results matter?

 hardly

 somewhat

 critical

11. If so (critical), why? And if not (hardly), why not?

12. Is PBL devoting the right amount of attention to this problem?

 not enough

 about right

 too much

13. If too little or too much, why is that?

Outputs from section 6

  • An assessment of the robustness of results (low, medium, high)
  • An indication of what it might take to make results more robust
  • An assessment of the relevance of results to the problem.