A.7 Uncertainty Matrix
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UNCERTAINTY MATRIX
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Level
of uncertainty
from
determinism, through probability uncertainty and
possibility, to ignorance
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Nature
of uncertainty
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Qualification
of knowledge base (backing)
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Value-ladenness
of choices
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LOCATION:
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Statistical
uncertainty
(range
+ change)
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Scanario
uncertainy
(range
as 'what-if' option)
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Recognized
ignorance
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Knowledge-related
uncertainty
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Variability-related
uncertainty
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Weak
-
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Fair
0
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Strong
+
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Small
-
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Medium
0
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Large
+
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context
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Ecological, technological, economic, social
and political representation
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Expert judgment
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Narratives; storylines; advices
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Model
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Model structure
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Relations
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Technical Model
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Software & hardware implementation
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Model parameters
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Model inputs
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Input data; driving forces; input scenarios
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Data (in
general sense)
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Measurements; monitoring data; survey data
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Outputs
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Indicators; statements
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Table 6: Uncertainty Matrix for localizing and characterizing
the various uncertainties involved.
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Brief description
of the selected sources of uncertainty
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Explanation and justification of the specifications
in the uncertainty matrix
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Source 1:
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Source 2:
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Source 3:
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Table 7: Background information on the uncertainty
sources depicted in the uncertainty matrix (table 6)
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