Gedetailleerde leidraad

0.6 Guidance Steps

The steps in the guidance tool are not necessarily made in a fixed sequence. While the quickscan and problem-frame steps need to be taken first to initiate an assessment, the other steps may follow and recur in any order and/or simultaneously, and the whole sequence can be iterated (see Fig. 1).

Mini-checklist and Quickscan
The mini-checklist is a short broad checklist to provide a first indication of possible key issues and uncertainties. If elaboration is needed it points to a 'quickscan questionnaire' and a 'quickscan hints & actions list' to further orient analysis and to provide some information prior to a full assessment. These mini-checklist and quickscan tools are provided elsewhere as separate documents (Petersen et al., 2003, Janssen et al., 2003). These 'instruments' can be used on their own for rapid scanning of problems. They provide explicit pointers to the detailed guidance tool described here, in case a further deepening of the quickscan analysis is deemed necessary.

Problem Framing and Context Analysis
Identify the problem, context and history. For whom is it a problem and how is it framed? Provide an initial outline of the main issues and characteristics, interests, disputes, and possible solutions. Classify the problem type and structure, together with implications of these characteristics for uncertainty assessment. Provide an initial ranking of the salience of sociopolitical and institutional uncertainties.

Communication
Produce a map of the information flow at PBL between analysts, project leaders, the media, ministry, and other outside institutions. Identify relevant communication pathways and points in the assessment process at which they need to be active. The role of stakeholders is also key for communication and is addressed in the next step.

Process Assessment
Given the characteristics of the problem (problem framing), what are the implications for process? Identify the different stakeholder groups and their characteristic views, values and interests in regard to the problem. What are appropriate roles for each of these groups in the intended assessment study? Where and when in the problem formulation and solution phases should they be involved and via what processes? Identify appropriate processes.

Environmental Assessment Methods
The environmental assessment process will entail use of various methods or tools to carry out the analysis. Such methods may include monitoring, modelling, scenario generation, policy exercises, focus groups, questionaires, and backcasting exercises for instance. Identify the methods used and characterize the uncertainties associated with these methods using the uncertainty typology.

Uncertainty Identification and Prioritization
For each step above (problem framing, process assessment, and environmental assessment methods), identify key uncertainties using the nomenclature in the uncertainty typology. Identify the best available method to approach each uncertainty, along with an indication of the strengths and limitations of the method. Identify any gaps between uncertainty methods required and those used or proposed. Describe potential consequences of gaps or weaknesses in uncertainty assessment. Make an initial prioritization of the potentially most important uncertainties.

Uncertainty Analysis
Carry out the prescribed set of uncertainty analyses for this problem. Checklists and other uncertainty methods will be used in the analysis as appropriate to the task and methods in question (see e.g. the Tool Catalogue for Uncertainty Assessment, van der Sluijs et al., 2003).

Review and Evaluation
Provide a review and summary of the analyses undertaken. Redo earlier steps or add steps if appropriate. Evaluate the robustness of results from the environmental assessment.

Reporting
Engage the identified audiences in a process of understanding results and their implications. Include dissenting or minority viewpoints. This may take the form of advice, a dialogue, or other, as appropriate to the context and processes identified (process assessment step). Note that though listed at the end here, the process assessment step may have identified communication and reporting efforts to occur throughout the assessment period.

Figure 1: Uncertainty management