Toolcatalogus

1.	Sensitivity analysis

2.	Error propagation equation ("TIER 1")

3.	Monte Carlo analysis ("TIER 2")

5.	Expert elicitation for uncertainty quantification

6.	Scenario analysis

7.	PRIMA: A framework for perspective-based uncertainty management

8.	Checklist for model quality assistance

9.	A method for critical review of assumptions in model-based assessments

References

Handbooks:

Andrea Saltelli, Karen Chan, Marian Scott, Sensitivity Analysis John Wiley & Sons publishers, Probability and Statistics series, 2000.

Andrea Saltelli, Stefano Tarantola, Francesca Campolongo, Marco Ratto, Sensitivity Analysis in Practice: A Guide to Assessing Scientific Models, John Wiley & Sons publishers, 2004 (Where the Saltelli et al. 2000 book provides the theoretical basis, this book is a comprehensive practical compendium of recommended methods tailored to specified settings, built around a set of examples and the freely available SIMLAB software.)

Papers

Campolongo, F., S. Tarantola and A. Saltelli. Tackling quantitatively large dimensionality problems. Computer Physics Communication, Vol. 1999, Issue 117, pp75-85.

Janssen, P.H.M., P.S.C. Heuberger, & R.A. Sanders. 1994. UNCSAM: a tool for automating sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. Environmental Software 9:1-11.

Morris, M.D. Factorial sampling plans for preliminary computational experiments. Technometrics, Vol. 33 (1991), Issue 2.

RIVM example of application of Morris:

Jose Potting, Peter Heuberger, Arthur Beusen, Detlef van Vuuren and Bert de Vries, Sensitivity Analysis, chapter 5 in: Jeroen P. van der Sluijs, Jose Potting, James Risbey, Detlef van Vuuren, Bert de Vries, Arthur Beusen, Peter Heuberger, Serafin Corral Quintana, Silvio Funtowicz, Penny Kloprogge, David Nuijten, Arthur Petersen, Jerry Ravetz. 2001.
Uncertainty assessment of the IMAGE/TIMER B1 CO2 emissions scenario, using the NUSAP method Dutch National Research Program on Climate Change, Report no: 410 200 104 (2001), 227 pp. (downloadable from http://www.nusap.net)

Websites

http://sensitivity-analysis.jrc.cec.eu.int/default.htm

Software

Available software for sensitivity analysis includes:

SIMLAB: http://sensitivity-analysis.jrc.cec.eu.int/default2.asp?page=SIMLAB
USATOOL: Currently under development at RIVM.
See also the software tools listed under Monte Carlo Analysis.

Experts

PBL: Peter Janssen, Sido Mylius
National: Peter Heuberger (TU Delft), Morris Ad Seebregts (ECN), Roger Cooke (TUD), Prof. Kleijnen (KUB), M. Jansen (Alterra, PRI)
International: Andrea Saltelli (JRC) Stefano Tarantola (JRC), John van Aardenne