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Tool Catalogue for Uncertainty Assessment
Introduction
1. Sensitivity analysis
2. Error propagation equation ("TIER 1")
3. Monte Carlo analysis ("TIER 2")
4. NUSAP
5. Expert elicitation for uncertainty quantification
Description
Goals and use
Sorts and locations of uncertainty addressed
Required resources
Strengths and limitations
Guidance on application
Pitfalls
References
6. Scenario analysis
7. PRIMA: A framework for perspective-based uncertainty management
8. Checklist for model quality assistance
9. A method for critical review of assumptions in model-based assessments

5. Expert elicitation for uncertainty quantification

Expert elicitation is a structured process to elicit subjective judgements from experts [1]. It is widely used in quantitative risk analysis to quantify uncertainties in cases where there is no or too few direct empirical data available to infer on uncertainty. Usually the subjective judgement is represented as a 'subjective' probability density function (PDF) reflecting the experts degree of belief.

[1] An expert is a person who has special skills or knowledge in a particular field. A judgement is the forming of an estimate or conclusion from information presented to or available to the expert.