5. Expert elicitation for uncertainty quantification

Expert elicitation is a structured process to elicit subjective judgements from experts [1]. It is widely used in quantitative risk analysis to quantify uncertainties in cases where there is no or too few direct empirical data available to infer on uncertainty. Usually the subjective judgement is represented as a 'subjective' probability density function (PDF) reflecting the experts degree of belief.

[1] An expert is a person who has special skills or knowledge in a particular field. A judgement is the forming of an estimate or conclusion from information presented to or available to the expert.