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Tool Catalogue for Uncertainty Assessment
Introduction
1. Sensitivity analysis
Description
Goals and use
Sorts and locations of uncertainty addressed
Required resources
Strengths and limitations
Guidance on application
Pitfalls
References
2. Error propagation equation ("TIER 1")
3. Monte Carlo analysis ("TIER 2")
4. NUSAP
5. Expert elicitation for uncertainty quantification
6. Scenario analysis
7. PRIMA: A framework for perspective-based uncertainty management
8. Checklist for model quality assistance
9. A method for critical review of assumptions in model-based assessments

Guidance on application

  • If a likely range is not known one can use for instance the point values plus or minus 50% or a factor 2 (half the point value to double the point value), depending on the nature of the variable, as a first go
  • Make sure that the ranges do not include physically impossible values
  • Explore possible dependencies