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Tool Catalogue for Uncertainty Assessment
Introduction
1. Sensitivity analysis
2. Error propagation equation ("TIER 1")
3. Monte Carlo analysis ("TIER 2")
Description
Goals and use
Sorts and locations of uncertainty addressed
Required resources
Strengths and limitations
Guidance on application
Pitfalls
References
4. NUSAP
5. Expert elicitation for uncertainty quantification
6. Scenario analysis
7. PRIMA: A framework for perspective-based uncertainty management
8. Checklist for model quality assistance
9. A method for critical review of assumptions in model-based assessments

Required resources

Computer

Monte Carlo software packages such as Crystal Ball and @Risk run on standard PCs with Pentium II, 200 MHz or faster, 32 MB RAM as officially recommended minimum configuration. On the basis of our experiences we recommend 500 Mhz processor or equivalent with 256 MB RAM as minimum configuration.

Training

Packages such as Crystal Ball are very easy to learn. If you are familiar with Excel it takes less than one hour to get proficient with Crystal Ball.

SimLab takes more time to get proficient with and requires more skills because one has to interface SimLab with one's own model. The forum on the SimLab website has however al lot of useful tips making the task easier. We recommend the book "Sensitivity Analysis in Practice: A Guide to Assessing Scientific Models" by Saltelli et al. 2004. It has many practical examples of the use of SimLab.