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Tool Catalogue for Uncertainty Assessment
Introduction
1. Sensitivity analysis
2. Error propagation equation ("TIER 1")
3. Monte Carlo analysis ("TIER 2")
4. NUSAP
5. Expert elicitation for uncertainty quantification
6. Scenario analysis
7. PRIMA: A framework for perspective-based uncertainty management
8. Checklist for model quality assistance
Description
Goals and use
Sorts and locations of uncertainty addressed
Required resources
Strengths and limitations
Guidance on application
Pitfalls
References
9. A method for critical review of assumptions in model-based assessments

Pitfalls

Typical pitfalls of the checklist for model quality assistance are:

  • The checklist is a tool for self-elicitation. Consequently the pitfalls of expert bias apply. For a full description we refer to the pitfalls listed under the entry "Expert Elicitation" in this toolbox document.
  • Note that quality assistance is not the same as quality control: Running the checklist on your model does not warrant quality.
  • Be aware that running the checklist does not make model evaluation or validation efforts superfluous.