Toolcatalogus

1.	Sensitivity analysis

2.	Error propagation equation ("TIER 1")

3.	Monte Carlo analysis ("TIER 2")

5.	Expert elicitation for uncertainty quantification

6.	Scenario analysis

7.	PRIMA: A framework for perspective-based uncertainty management

8.	Checklist for model quality assistance

9.	A method for critical review of assumptions in model-based assessments

References

The checklist:

Risbey, J., van der Sluijs, J., Ravetz, J., and P. Janssen 2001: A checklist for quality assistance in environmental modelling. Research Report E-2001-11 (ISBN 90-73958-66-0), Department of Science Technology and Society, Utrecht University (http://www.nusap.net/download.php?op=viewdownload&cid=1)

An interactive fully automated version of the checklist is available in the interactive tools section of the nusap.net: http://www.nusap.net/sections.php?op=viewarticle&artid=15

Underlying theory:

Ravetz, J. 1971: Scientific knowledge and its social problems. Oxford. Clarendon Press.

Risbey, J., M. Kandlikar, and A. Patwardhan 1996: Assessing Integrated Assessments. Climatic Change 34, 369-395.

Experts:

PBL: Peter Janssen, Arthur Petersen, Detlef van Vuuren.
National: Jeroen van der Sluijs, Penny Kloprogge
International: James Risbey, Jerry Ravetz, Silvio Funtowicz, Bruna De Marchi