Toolcatalogus

1.	Sensitivity analysis

2.	Error propagation equation ("TIER 1")

3.	Monte Carlo analysis ("TIER 2")

5.	Expert elicitation for uncertainty quantification

6.	Scenario analysis

7.	PRIMA: A framework for perspective-based uncertainty management

8.	Checklist for model quality assistance

9.	A method for critical review of assumptions in model-based assessments

Required resources

Resources required for assessing the Spread qualifier depend on the method chosen (some form of Sensitivity Analysis or Monte Carlo analysis usually in combination with expert elicitation will be needed).

For the assessment of Pedigree, many resources (pedigree matrices, pedigree calculator, kite diagram maker, elicitation protocol and questionnaires) are freely available from http://www.nusap.net. Basic interviewing skills and awareness of motivational bias that may occur in any expert elicitation are required. See also the section on expert elicitation in this toolbox.

If one uses an expert workshop, basic skills for facilitating structured group discussions are needed. In addition, skills are needed to arrive at a balanced composition of the workshop audience to minimize biases.

Time required per expert elicitation in a one to one interview depends on the number of parameters and the complexity of the case. It may typically vary between 1 and 5 hours. A substantial amount of time may be needed for a good preparation of the interviews.

Recommended length for a NUSAP expert elicitation workshop is between one and one and a half day