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Tool Catalogue for Uncertainty Assessment
Introduction
1. Sensitivity analysis
2. Error propagation equation ("TIER 1")
3. Monte Carlo analysis ("TIER 2")
4. NUSAP
Description
Goals and use
Sorts and locations of uncertainty addressed
Required resources
Strengths and limitations
Guidance on application
Pitfalls
References
5. Expert elicitation for uncertainty quantification
6. Scenario analysis
7. PRIMA: A framework for perspective-based uncertainty management
8. Checklist for model quality assistance
9. A method for critical review of assumptions in model-based assessments

Guidance on application

  • For guidance on the application of NUSAP we refer to http://www.nusap.net
  • When eliciting pedigree scores, always ask for motivation for the score given and document the motivation along with the pedigree scores.
  • Expert disagreement on pedigree scores for a parameter can be an indication of epistemic uncertainty about that parameter. Find out whether there are different paradigms or competing schools of thought on that parameter.