mainlogo
Tool Catalogue for Uncertainty Assessment
Introduction
1. Sensitivity analysis
2. Error propagation equation ("TIER 1")
3. Monte Carlo analysis ("TIER 2")
4. NUSAP
5. Expert elicitation for uncertainty quantification
Description
Goals and use
Sorts and locations of uncertainty addressed
Required resources
Strengths and limitations
Guidance on application
Pitfalls
References
6. Scenario analysis
7. PRIMA: A framework for perspective-based uncertainty management
8. Checklist for model quality assistance
9. A method for critical review of assumptions in model-based assessments

Sorts and locations of uncertainty addressed

The Stanford Protocol and its variants typically address inexactness in inputs and parameters, and are focused mainly on statistical uncertainty. The Risbey et al. (2001) protocol combines an elicitation on PDFs with an elicitation of the parameter pedigree (see also van der Sluijs et al. 2001, and the NUSAP entry in this tool catalogue), and therefore addresses also the unreliability of inputs, parameters and instruments (or model structure).

In principle expert elicitation techniques can be tailored and used to elicit and encode subjective expert judgements on any sort of uncertainty at any location distinguished in the uncertainty typology.