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Tool Catalogue for Uncertainty Assessment
Introduction
1. Sensitivity analysis
2. Error propagation equation ("TIER 1")
3. Monte Carlo analysis ("TIER 2")
4. NUSAP
5. Expert elicitation for uncertainty quantification
6. Scenario analysis
7. PRIMA: A framework for perspective-based uncertainty management
8. Checklist for model quality assistance
9. A method for critical review of assumptions in model-based assessments
Description
Goals and use
Sorts and locations of uncertainty addressed
Required resources
Stengths and limitations
Guidance on application
Pitfalls
References

Stengths and limitations

  • The method enables a well-structured discussion on potentially value-laden assumptions among scientists and stakeholders. In this discussion not only the politically controversial assumptions are addressed (as is often the case when assessment results are discussed in public), but also other assumptions that turn out to be important for assessment results.
  • The method acknowledges that also pragmatic factors may play a role in the colouring of assumptions

Typical weaknesses of the method are:

  • The results may be sensitive to the composition of the group of participants (both the number of persons and the persons' backgrounds).
  • The results may be sensitive to procedure details as determined by the group facilitator.
  • The method does not offer a clear answer to how to deal with extensive disagreement on the pedigree scores of assumptions.