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Tool Catalogue for Uncertainty Assessment
Introduction
1. Sensitivity analysis
2. Error propagation equation ("TIER 1")
3. Monte Carlo analysis ("TIER 2")
4. NUSAP
5. Expert elicitation for uncertainty quantification
6. Scenario analysis
7. PRIMA: A framework for perspective-based uncertainty management
8. Checklist for model quality assistance
9. A method for critical review of assumptions in model-based assessments
Description
Goals and use
Sorts and locations of uncertainty addressed
Required resources
Stengths and limitations
Guidance on application
Pitfalls
References

Pitfalls

  • Potential value-ladenness should not be confused with actual value-ladenness. Assessing the actual value-ladenness of an assumption is impossible, since it would require exact and detailed knowledge on what factors contributed to what extent to the analyst's choices.
  • It is the facilitator's job to make sure that the discussions among the participants do not slide off to a quick group consensus, but that there is an open discussion promoting critical review.