Gedetailleerde leidraad

0	Introduction to the Detailed Guidance

1	Problem Framing and Context

1.1	Problem Frames

1.2	Problem Assessment

1.3	Problem Structure

1.4	Problem Lifecycle

1.5	Uncertainty in Socio-Political Context

2	Process Assessment

3	Environmental Assessment Methods

4	Uncertainty Identification and Prioritization

5	Uncertainty Analysis

6	Review and Evaluation

A	Appendix: Uncertainty Matrix

B	Appendix: Glossary

1.3 Problem Structure

This section is intended to help draw out the broad structure of the problem to place it on a spectrum from more structured technical problems to more unstructured post-normal science problems (see the glossary in appendix B). The degree of structure of the problem will have implications for the kinds of uncertainties and approaches to use as well as for the involvement of stakeholder groups. Note that different stakeholders may have different views of the problem structure from one another and from the analysts. In that event it may be useful to redo this section from the point of view of each of the relevant stakeholders. In the plain boxes below use is made of the uncertainty typology presented in appendix A. See also the glossary in appendix B.for information on other concepts such as reflexive science and partisan mutual adjustment.

Implications from structure diagram

1. Score the problem according to the level of agreement about what kind of knowledge is needed to solve the problem

2. Score the problem according to the level of consent on norms and values

If agreement on what kind of knowledge is needed is low and consent on norms and values is low, then the problem is unstructured. Highlight uncertainties of type (recognized) ignorance and value-ladenness. Typically requires public debate, conflict management, and reflexive science.

If agreement on what kind of knowledge is needed is high and consent on norms and values is high, then the problem is well structured. Typically requires normal scientific procedures.

If agreement on what kind of knowledge is needed is low and consent on norms and values is high, then the problem is moderately structured. Highlight uncertainties involving unreliability (i.e. the backing/underpinning is weak) and (recognized) ignorance. Typically requires partisan mutual adjustment, stake-holder involvement, and extended peer acceptance.

If agreement on what kind of knowledge is needed is high and consent on norms and values is low, then the problem is moderately structured. Highlight uncertainties involving value ladenness, particularly related to knowledge utilization. Typically requires accomodation on the policy side and reflexive science.

Implications from Post-normal science

3. Score the problem according to the level of decision stakes

4. Score the problem according to the level of systems uncertainty

If the decision stakes are low and system uncertainty is low, then the problem is mostly in the technical domain. Highlight only uncertainties involving inexactness (e.g. expressed as a range of possible values, in terms of statistical uncertainty and scenario uncertainty) and unreliability (i.e. the backing/ underpinning is weak). Stakeholder involvement is not so key.

If the decision stakes are high and system uncertainty is high, then the problem is one of post-normal science. Highlight uncertainties involving value ladenness and (recognized) ignorance. Typically require extended peer communities in working the problem and close stakeholder involvement.

If the decision stakes are high and system uncertainty is low, then the problem is still post-normal, but with less emphasis on scientific uncertainty. Explore instead legal, moral, societal, institutional, proprietary, and situational uncertainties. Typically requires efforts to bring stakeholders together in the solution phase.

If the decision stakes are low and system uncertainty is high, then the problem may be subject to changes in its structure. Highlight uncertainties involving unreliability (i.e. the backing/underpinning is weak) and (recognized) ignorance. While the low decision stakes may imply a diminished role for stakeholders, they should be involved as a precaution since the system uncertainty is high.