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Gedetailleerde leidraad

PBL Guidance for Uncertainty Assessment and Communication
0 Introduction to the Detailed Guidance
1 Problem Framing and Context
1.1 Problem Frames
1.2 Problem Assessment
1.3 Problem Structure
1.4 Problem Lifecycle
1.5 Uncertainty in Socio-Political Context
2 Process Assessment
3 Environmental Assessment Methods
4 Uncertainty Identification and Prioritization
5 Uncertainty Analysis
6 Review and Evaluation
7 Reporting
References
Acknowledgments
A Appendix: Uncertainty Matrix
B Appendix: Glossary

1.4 Problem Lifecycle

The life-cycles of environmental problems do not readily conform to idealized models. Nonetheless, it is useful to speak of problems as being in certain phases, such as recognition, active debate, implementation, monitoring, and so on. In practice a problem may move back and forth between various stages as new information comes to light. In this section we try to determine the current phase of the problem, if such exists. This can be useful to gauge the level and stage of involvement of different groups on this issue.

1. Is the issue recognized as a problem among the following groups [1]:

groups: hardly partially mostly
Cabinet and ministries (national)
Parliament (national)
Governmental advisory boards and councils
Other governmental actors (local/regional/international)
Other governmental 'planning offices' (CPB, SCP, RPB)
Research institutes/consultancies
Scientists/universities
Sector-specific actors (from, e.g., agriculture, transport, industry)
Umbrella organizations (e.g. VNO)
Environmental and consumer organizations
Unorganized stakeholders; citizens
Media
Other, specify:

2. Have solutions been actively discussed and debated?

 hardly

 moderately

 intensively

3. Have efforts at implementation of solutions begun?

 hardly

 moderately

 intensively

4. To what extent will current efforts (if any) at implementing solutions likely solve the problem?

 hardly

 moderately

 mostly

5. Has monitoring of policies been put into effect?

 none

 partial

 intensive

6. Are there any indications that this problem has been under or overestimated so far? By whom?

  under
estimated		 well
estimated		 over
estimated
Cabinet and ministries (national)
Parliament (national)
Governmental advisory boards and councils
Other governmental actors (local/regional/international)
Other governmental 'planning offices' (CPB, SCP, RPB)
Research institutes/consultancies
Scientists/universities
Sector-specific actors (from, e.g., agriculture, transport, industry)
Umbrella organizations (e.g. VNO)
Environmental and consumer organizations
Unorganized stakeholders; citizens
Media
Other, specify:

7. Based on your answers to the previous questions, how would you rate this problem overall?

 immature

 active

 active

Implications for methods and uncertainty types

if problem phase immature - important to identify stakeholders

if problem structure indicates that values are important or decision stakes high - involve stakeholders early in the project

if problem phase active - work with existing stakeholders

if problem phase mature - less critical to engage stakeholders

[1] The listed groups are considered to be characteristic for the environmental assessment field PBL is working on; other working areas for other institutes will possibly require a somewhat different categorization of stakeholder-groups.