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Tool Catalogue for Uncertainty Assessment
Introduction
1. Sensitivity analysis
2. Error propagation equation ("TIER 1")
3. Monte Carlo analysis ("TIER 2")
4. NUSAP
5. Expert elicitation for uncertainty quantification
6. Scenario analysis
Description
Goals and use
Sorts and locations of uncertainty addressed
Required resources
Strengths and limitations
Guidance on application
Pitfalls
References
7. PRIMA: A framework for perspective-based uncertainty management
8. Checklist for model quality assistance
9. A method for critical review of assumptions in model-based assessments

Required resources

Scenario analysis requires creativity and ability to think outside the scope of the familiar and the present. Further it requires insight in dynamics, relationships, en synergies of systems and their environment and thus it requires a broad knowledge of the field involved. Therefor scenarios analysis should take place in an interdisciplinary team.

In the case of a quantitative approach, computer models or spreadsheets or other software are needed to run/visualise scenarios. Access to relevant data is important in order to be able to construct the scenarios.

In the case of a qualitative approach, input has to be collected from experts, stakeholders or users in workshops with stakeholders to be able to develop storylines. Basic skills for facilitating groups.

 Both approaches are time and resource consuming.