Toolcatalogus

1.	Sensitivity analysis

2.	Error propagation equation ("TIER 1")

3.	Monte Carlo analysis ("TIER 2")

5.	Expert elicitation for uncertainty quantification

6.	Scenario analysis

7.	PRIMA: A framework for perspective-based uncertainty management

8.	Checklist for model quality assistance

9.	A method for critical review of assumptions in model-based assessments

References

Alcamo J. (2001) Scenarios as tools for international environmental assessments. Environmental issues report. Experts corner report. Prospects and Scenarios No.5, European Environment Agency, Copenhagen

P. Jansen Schoonhoven and F.M. Roschar, Werken met scenario's; ook kwalitatieve informatie is te verwerken. Beleidsanalyse 1, p. 146-153, 1992.

Van Notten, P. (2002) Foresight in the face of scenario diversity. Paper presented at the international conference Probing the Future: developing organizational foresight in the knowledge economy, 11-13 July 2002 Glasgow.

UNEP (2002) Global Environmental Outlook 3: Past, present and future perspectives, Earthscan.

Handbooks:

Kees Van Der Heijden, Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation, John Wiley & Sons; 1996 (ISBN: 0471966398),

Example case studies:

IPCC SRES

Websites:

Experts at PBL:

Bert de Vries, Jos Olivier, Petra van Egmond, Jan Bakkes, Leon Jansen, Willemijn Tuinstra, Ed Dammers, Aldert Hanemaaijer, Arthur Petersen.