Toolcatalogus

1.	Sensitivity analysis

2.	Error propagation equation ("TIER 1")

3.	Monte Carlo analysis ("TIER 2")

5.	Expert elicitation for uncertainty quantification

6.	Scenario analysis

7.	PRIMA: A framework for perspective-based uncertainty management

8.	Checklist for model quality assistance

9.	A method for critical review of assumptions in model-based assessments

Strengths of scenario analysis:

Scenarios are often the only way to deal with the unknown future;
Assumptions about future developments are made transparent and documented
Gives insight in key factors that determine future developments;
Creates awareness on alternative development paths, risks, and opportunities and possibilities for policies or decision-making.

Weaknesses of scenario analysis are:

The analysis is limited to those aspects of reality that can be quantified (quantitative scenarios)
Difficult to test underlying assumptions (qualitative scenarios)
Frequently scenarios do not go beyond trend extrapolation (quantitative scenarios);
Frequently scenarios are surprise-free;
Frequently models used contain only one view, which will make the outcomes narrow in scope, thus not doing justice to the wish to explore fundamentally different futures