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Tool Catalogue for Uncertainty Assessment
Introduction
1. Sensitivity analysis
2. Error propagation equation ("TIER 1")
3. Monte Carlo analysis ("TIER 2")
4. NUSAP
5. Expert elicitation for uncertainty quantification
6. Scenario analysis
Description
Goals and use
Sorts and locations of uncertainty addressed
Required resources
Strengths and limitations
Guidance on application
Pitfalls
References
7. PRIMA: A framework for perspective-based uncertainty management
8. Checklist for model quality assistance
9. A method for critical review of assumptions in model-based assessments

Guidance on application

  • Define very well what the objectives of the scenario analysis are: adjust the scenario development and analysis according to the objectives.
  • Make sure the scenarios are transparent and well documented
  • Scenario should not be implausible (they should be recognizable and internally consistent)
  • Be aware and explicit about the limited scope of a certain model used
  • Present as many scenario as possible and as few as necessary: it is important to represent many views and possibilities, however with too many scenarios it will be difficult to communicate results (analyse many, report few)