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Tool Catalogue for Uncertainty Assessment
Introduction
1. Sensitivity analysis
2. Error propagation equation ("TIER 1")
3. Monte Carlo analysis ("TIER 2")
4. NUSAP
5. Expert elicitation for uncertainty quantification
6. Scenario analysis
7. PRIMA: A framework for perspective-based uncertainty management
Description
Goals and use
Sorts and locations of uncertainty addressed
Required resources
Guidance on application
Strengths and limitations
Pitfalls
References
8. Checklist for model quality assistance
9. A method for critical review of assumptions in model-based assessments

Description

PRIMA is an acronym for Pluralistic fRamework for Integrated uncertainty Management and risk Analysis. PRIMA is not a tool in the classic sense, but a meta approach (organising framework) to structure the process of uncertainty management (van Asselt, 2000). The guiding principle is that uncertainty legitimates different perspectives on policy issues and that, as a consequence, uncertainty management should explicitly take these different perspectives into account. In doing so, different legitimate interpretations of uncertain values and causal relationships are explored in a systematic manner, which enables to tell a story behind the various outcomes/outlooks.