Toolcatalogus

1.	Sensitivity analysis

2.	Error propagation equation ("TIER 1")

3.	Monte Carlo analysis ("TIER 2")

5.	Expert elicitation for uncertainty quantification

6.	Scenario analysis

7.	PRIMA: A framework for perspective-based uncertainty management

8.	Checklist for model quality assistance

9.	A method for critical review of assumptions in model-based assessments

PRIMA is an iterative and cyclical approach that has been set up in a modular manner:

Key characteristics of module:

starting perspective : to what type of uncertainties PRIMA will be applied and which controversy or dilemma being assessed. tools : discussion (also with clients/stakeholders), reflection
uncertainties in perspective: scan and selection of key uncertainties and perspective-based interpretation of these uncertainties. tools: iterative process which can includes brainstorming exercises, ranking techniques, interviews with experts, participatory workshops with role-playing, desk/literature study,:
scenarios in perspective: scanning the future from a wide variety of perspectives; this can be done both in a qualitative and quantitative manner. tools: participatory techniques for scenario analysis; perspective-based model routes; Monte-Carlo can be used as complementary tool to assess statistical uncertainties in values used for each perspective
risk-in-perspective: assess risks and developing robust strategies, taking into account the variety of perspective-based assessments gathered. tools: sensible risk comparisons, critical reflection and synthesis; Note: most difficult (!) and immature module, for which not many concrete hints can be given.
quality assessment: test the quality of the associated robust insights by reflecting on the previous steps that means evaluating whether the uncertainties have been considered in an adequate manner. tools: quality checklists, pedigree matrices, uncertainty review

Hints: It is not necessary to carry out the full cycle, modules can to a certain extent be used in a stand-alone version.