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Tool Catalogue for Uncertainty Assessment
Introduction
1. Sensitivity analysis
2. Error propagation equation ("TIER 1")
3. Monte Carlo analysis ("TIER 2")
4. NUSAP
5. Expert elicitation for uncertainty quantification
6. Scenario analysis
7. PRIMA: A framework for perspective-based uncertainty management
Description
Goals and use
Sorts and locations of uncertainty addressed
Required resources
Guidance on application
Strengths and limitations
Pitfalls
References
8. Checklist for model quality assistance
9. A method for critical review of assumptions in model-based assessments

References

van Asselt, M. B. A., and Rotmans, J. (1996). "Uncertainty in Perspective." Global Environmental Change, 6(2), 121-157.

van Asselt, M. B. A., Beusen, A. H. W., and Hilderink, H. B. M. (1996). "Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment: A Social Scientific Approach." Environmental Modelling and Assessment, 1(1/2), 71-90.

Rotmans, J., and Vries, B. d. (1997). Perspectives on global change: the TARGETS approach, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

Rotmans, J., and van Asselt, M. B. A. (1999). "Perspectives on a sustainable future." International journal for sustainable development, 2(2), 201-230.

van Asselt, M. B. A. (2000). Perspectives on Uncertainty and Risk: The PRIMA approach to decision support, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.

van Asselt, M. B. A., Langendonck, R., van Asten, F., van der Giessen, A., Janssen, P., Heuberger, P., and Geuskens, I. (2001). "Uncertainty & RIVM's Environmental Outlooks. Documenting a learning process.", ICIS/RIVM, Maastricht/Bilthoven, The Netherlands.

van Asselt, M. B. A., Middelkoop, H., van 't Klooster, S. A., van Deursen, W. P. A., Haasnoot, M., Kwadijk, J. C. J., Buiteveld, H., Können, G. P., Rotmans, J., van Gemert, N., and Valkering, P. (2001). "Integrated water management strategies for the Rhine and Meuse basins in a changing environment : Final report of the NRP project 0/958273/01.", ICIS, Maastricht/Utrecht.

van Asselt, M. B. A., and Rotmans, J. (2002). "Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment modelling: From positivism to pluralism." Climatic Change (54), 75-105.

van Asselt, M. B. A., and Rotmans, J. (forthcoming). "Uncertainty management in regional integrated assessment." Chapter for START-CIRA-IHDP book on Regional Integrated Assessment, J. Jäger and G. Knight, eds.

Key references on Cultural Theory:

Thompson, M., Ellis, R., and Wildavsky, A. (1990). Cultural Theory, Westview Press, Boulder, USA.

Thompson, M., Grendstad, G., and Selle, P. (1999). Cultural Theory as Political Science, Routledge, London.

Rayner, S. (1984). "Disagreeing about Risk: The Institutional Cultures of Risk Management and Planning for Future Generations." Risk Analysis, Institution and Public Policy, S. G. Hadden, ed., Associated Faculty Press, Port Washington, USA.

Rayner, S. (1991). "A Cultural Perspective on the Structure and Implementation of Global Environmental Agreements." Evaluation Review, 15(1), 75-102.

Rayner, S. (1992). "Cultural Theory and Risk Analysis." Social Theory of Risk, G. D. Preagor, ed., Westport, USA.

Rayner, S., and Cantor, R. (1987). "How fair is safe enough? The cultural approach to societal technology choice." Risk Analysis, 7(1), 3-9.

Rayner, S., and Malone, E. (1996). "Human Choice and Climate Change: An International Social Science Assessment." Battle Press, Colunbus, Ohio, 429.

Douglas, M., and Wildavsky, A. (1982). Risk and Culture: Essays on the Selection of Technical and Environmental Dangers, University of California Press, Berkley, USA.

Trisoglio, A., Plurality and Political Culture, A Response to Thompson and Drake, paper Presented at workshop "Risk, Policy and Complexity", IIASA, Laxenburg, 7-9 August 1995, 18 pp.

experts within PBL:

Bert de Vries, Henk Hilderink, Arthur Beusen

National experts:

Marjolein van Asselt, Susan van 't Klooster, Jan Rotmans, Hans Middelkoop, W. van Deursen, Jaap Kwadijk en Marjolein Haasnoot